Cautious Optimism for 2011 Holidays

Retailers Show Confidence in 4th Quarter Sales Potential

by Adam Hilliard on October 17, 2011

Not great, but good enough. That’s the prognosis for the 2011 holiday season according to the National Retail Federation, with sales expected to increase 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion. While far lower than the 5.2 percent increase retailers experienced last year, it is slightly higher than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.6 percent.

This year’s cheerier outlook is based on 14 consecutive months of retail sales growth and a substantial reduction in Americans’ household debt. However, continued uncertainty over the stock market, higher gas and food prices, fiscal policy and sputtering job growth will surely impact spending this holiday season.

“Retailers are optimistic that a combination of strong promotions and lean inventory levels will help them address consumer caution this holiday season,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.

Seasonal Hiring Already Underway

For the first time, NRF used its holiday forecasting model to predict seasonal hiring in retail. According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 480,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, which is comparable to the 495,000 seasonal employees hired last year. Since last August, the retail industry has added nearly 100,000 jobs.

If you’re interested in seasonal employment, now’s the time to start applying – about a third of retailers plan to start hiring in October.

Toys “R” Us announced that it will hire over 40,000 workers nationwide, both in retail outlets and its distribution centers. In 2010, 10 percent of its holiday workforce was hired full time, the company said.

Best Buy will reportedly add 15,000 workers to its stores nationwide ahead of the holiday shopping season.

Macy’s announced it will add 78,000 temp workers, a 4 percent increase from 2010.

ShutterFly, an online photo-sharing service, seeks to hire 600 seasonal employees, 100 more than last year. Wages are up to $12.50 an hour.

Zappos is considering applicants for approximately 2,000 temporary jobs at its Shepherdsville, Ky., fulfillment center. Pay starts at $8.25 per hour.

“The hundreds of thousands of jobs created during the holiday season help people support their families by supplementing their household income and providing generous employee discounts,” said Shay. “As the retail industry bounces back from the recession and continues to add jobs, some holiday employees could find themselves with an opportunity for even more: a new career in one of the most innovative industries on the planet.”

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